The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing a significant shift in international travel demand, as revealed by a recent analysis from Mabrian, part of the Almawave Group. The study highlights a decline in security perception across Gulf destinations, leading European and US travellers to consider closer-to-home and long-haul alternatives. Countries like Egypt, Türkiye, and Jordan are experiencing spillover effects on traveller confidence.
Mabrian's Perception of Security Index (PSI) shows a marked decline in safety sentiment across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) destinations, with Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar experiencing the steepest drops. Bahrain's PSI fell by 81 points to 9.6, whilst Oman and Qatar saw declines of 56.7 and 54.9 points, respectively. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, although affected, demonstrated stronger resilience with smaller declines.
Neighbouring countries, including Egypt, Jordan, and Türkiye, are also impacted due to their proximity to the conflict. Jordan's PSI dropped by 30.3 points, whilst Türkiye and Egypt saw declines of 25.8 and 7.6 points, respectively. US travellers, in particular, show heightened sensitivity, with significant PSI contractions in Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
Carlos Cendra, Mabrian's Director of Marketing and Communications, emphasised the importance of monitoring travellers' perceptions, stating, "Restoring confidence will become an immediate strategic priority once the conflict subsides."
The analysis identifies three emerging travel demand scenarios: a preference for closer destinations like Morocco and Greece, sustained interest in Asian destinations such as Japan and Thailand, and a rise in long-haul travel to places like South Africa and the Maldives. Egypt remains popular among European travellers, though its appeal is vulnerable to Middle East developments
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