The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is already having serious repercussions on the travel and tourism scene, and it is highly possible that the MICE and business events sectors will also bear the brunt of its adverse impact.
It is currently estimated by experts that the Middle East as a whole stands to lose between US$34 billion to $56 billion in terms of visitor spending this year if the ongoing armed conflict remains unresolved.
While official estimates have yet to be provided for the MICE and business events sectors, the numbers alone already paint a chilling picture of the potential scenario.
Potential for significant loss
The human and infrastructural cost of the ongoing conflict already compounds that which has already been lost due to the still unresolved Gaza issue between Israel and Palestine.
In a recent piece, we also pointed out how those two warring states are still reeling from the losses incurred from the complete halt of inbound religious tourism over the past couple of years; and Saudi Arabia, where the Muslim holy cities of Makkah and Madinah are, could share their fate.
If there is a drop in religious tourism, then MICE and business events would also be affected, as those flying in for specific events or even meetings will simply opt to stay put where they are or suggest that events be conducted virtually online.
For both the regional and global business events sectors, the ongoing conflict could lead to the following adverse developments:
- Significantly lower inbound arrivals It was forecast at the end of 2025 that visitor arrivals into the Middle East, primarily fuelled by leisure and MICE travellers, would increase by 13 percent. However, it is possible that visitor numbers will decline rather than grow this year, plunging by around 11 to 27 percent year-on-year;
- A drop in visitor volume Less inbound arrivals also mean significant losses in terms of visitor volume, particularly for regional MICE centres like Dubai and Riyadh. According to experts from Tourism Economics, event organisers could see a drop of between 23 million to 38 billion foreign visitors this year;
- Cancellations across the board Given how governments and aviation authorities are limiting access to regional airspace to protect travellers, event organisers will need to either reschedule major events or cancel them outright; and
- Higher costs all around Even if events do push through, another challenge organisers face in substantially higher operational costs.These may include paying higher insurance premiums, especially for those flying speakers in from overseas or are freighting in materials for exhibitions and expositions; an increase in the price of airfare and accommodations, primarily driven by the price of oil skyrocketing over US$100 per barrel; and even higher registration fees charged to participants.
Current workarounds
Admittedly, we cannot expect matters to improve as the conflict is ongoing, especially in light of the fact that major airspace, waterways, and even roadways remain only partially open or completely closed.
For now, as stated earlier, organisers will need to call off their events or consider alternative methods for hosting them.
As with the pandemic, the ongoing crisis could lead to an increase in hybrid and completely virtual events to ensure the safety of their participants, as well as a good way to keep costs down without compromising on participant numbers.
On the other hand, the Middle East's potential loss could be another region's gain.
This is particularly true for Asia: the region could see a higher number of attendees at its MICE functions, especially as potential investors could see an opportunity against the backdrop of the current crisis, pivoting their interests from troubled areas like the Middle East and the United States to safer and potentially more profitable markets.
We could also see more downsized events in the coming weeks and months as organisers work to cut operational expenses whilst dealing with a significantly smaller participant base.
In any case, the old adage from showbusiness applies to global events: things may be falling apart, but the show must go on.
